But things are starting to change.

According to the latest figures, Tallinn’s population has been declining over the past two years. At the beginning of 2026, the city had just under 460,000 residents. By the end of May, that number had fallen by more than 2,000.

So, what’s causing the decline?

The biggest reason is simple: fewer babies are being born than people are passing away. This has been the case every year since 2020.

At the same time, more people are now leaving Tallinn than moving in. While the city welcomed a large number of Ukrainian refugees in 2022, that exceptional population growth has now slowed, and migration has turned slightly negative.

Does this mean Tallinn is shrinking for good?

Probably not.

Population experts still expect Tallinn to grow over the coming decades. The difference is that future growth is likely to depend much more on immigration than on natural population growth. Estonia, like many other European countries, has an ageing population and lower birth rates, making international talent increasingly important for the country’s economy.

For foreigners thinking about moving to Estonia, this isn’t necessarily bad news.

A smaller working-age population means Estonia will continue looking for skilled professionals, entrepreneurs, researchers, and international talent. At the same time, the city remains one of Northern Europe’s leading digital hubs, offering a high quality of life, excellent public services, and a growing international community.

The numbers may be changing, but Tallinn remains an attractive place to live and build a career. The challenge for the city isn’t whether people want to come—it’s how Estonia adapts to an ageing population while continuing to attract and retain talented people from around the world.